The
First Seminar to the 1-st Lesson[1]
at the Soft Power School
‘The
Military Balkanization after Putin’
Any revolutionary changes involve the Military. The
Military as an institution sweeps away previous political actors and stands on
guard for benefits of the new ones.
New leaders pinpoint new military guardians as their
‘shield & sword’ vs. restoration of former rulers with their public,
diplomatic, economic, and cultural relations.
The Military plays the role of standard-bearers of the
coming changes, if any. The point is that children and relatives of previous
rulers and their military guardians might start loosing their faith in the degrading
system of power, while in the Military.
The History of Russia may expose many examples of
military opposition activity, if secret services let open their archives. Roots
of it can be found in higher and lower strata of Society.
The lower strata representatives in uniform and/or at government
positions are ‘fathers’ of the wild enrichment at the cost of dismissed ‘servants
of the people’.
The upper classes, which served as the Military to the
dismissed bosses, start hiding in the shadow of (semi) criminal relations with
the Society, trying to restore their power.
The traditional ‘schools of political-military thoughts’
stand on the ‘corner-stone’ of deep-rooted Russian ‘obedience’ to authority. According
to them, the post-Soviet mind-set lacks many Western and even all-human instincts
of individual initiatives. Instead of them, there is an alien soil for a free
market economy.
New approaches to the role of the Russian Military
take for granted that 100 years of Soviet and post-Soviet degradation have
turned Russia into a Failed State without laws. That is why the Military and
Society have no legal constraints and moral compass of a 21-st century State. To
prove this judgment, the war against Ukraine is the best illustration.
If President Trump wants to deal with Putin and his
‘siloviki’ (the combination of Secret Services and paramilitary ‘people’ structures),
he and the US Congress, as representatives of the Armed Forces & Society, should
bear in mind that:
-
Lying in public, stealing of state-budget
money and cheating with ‘unfriendly businesses’ are second names of the Kremlin’s
elite;
-
Violence, brutality, contract killings, the
blatant thefts of military property and budget money have fed up greedy
ambitions of those who promise to ‘lead Russia to Peace and Prosperity’;
-
There are ‘Grey Zones’ without the law and
order under Constitution-1993 that was ‘adopted’ after the shelling the Russian
parliament two months earlier;
-
The Military under Putin might guard only
his ‘easy money’ that the Kremlin has hidden abroad under fake-pretexts of the
‘information wars’ with the West.
The opposition leaders and their advocates in the West
declare that ‘the rule of law’ will not be in Russia till the next election.
They mean that the ruling kleptocracy may go on robbing the Military and
Society[2].
Another alternative for the opposition is to support
the idea that ‘only the Military will get Putin away (The Gorbachev’s
dismissing). In this case, there are hopes for the population ‘to see the light
in the end of the tunnel’ sooner that in 6 years.
The point is that the Military has been united around
the Kremlin up to now only with huge payments. But in Spring 2018, these
pretty-highly paid ‘the united Armed Forces’ will be definitely split into
regional fractions under heavy blows, like miserable financing by the Kremlin.
Regional elite and their economic affairs do need more
self-defense from the authoritarian ‘siloviki’ (Secret Service and Police) to
survive as ‘bosses to themselves’. Putin as the Commander-in-Chief cannot
satisfy needs and demands of all elite even in basic primitive dreams of
prosperity.
And the status of this poorly looking C-in-C seems to
remind the whole population the destiny of autocrats of last decades (Kaddafi,
etc.).
The latent and quite peaceful balkanization of the
Armed Forces of the USSR was the corner stone of the CIS emergence. The same
model is standing in front of Russia after Putin, possibly, right after March
18, 2018.
The private armed forces in the Caucuses, Syria, Iraq
and Southern Sudan give impulses to another balkanization of the Shoigu-Putin’s
Military.
Money for killings abroad comes to regions and infects
huge conflicts between the Kremlin and regional elite with local ‘war-lords’
and their ‘milbiz’. All these military businesses contradict to the
Constitution and civil rights of proprietors, saying nothing of foreign
investors and dealers.
The grass-roots self-defense of local businesses is
the key to regions’ prosperity in/out of Russia.
The Balkanization Trends in the Armed Forces and
Society in Russia are not on the federal surface, but they are strong in
regions, which might start the long waited Peaceful Revolution to replace
Putin’s Kleptocracy.
What questions do you accept/reject here and put in
your regions?
Vladimir Lukov
P.S. Support our discussions with donations to my
Sberbank card 2202
2003 7037 5873, via PayPal payment to Vladimir Lukov (vlukov@dol.ru).
And there is a Russian version of this statement for your friends, colleagues and enemies (we may pacify them too) - https://www.livejournal.com/post?draft=https://ext-2959830.livejournal.com/d1.html .
And there is a Russian version of this statement for your friends, colleagues and enemies (we may pacify them too) - https://www.livejournal.com/post?draft=https://ext-2959830.livejournal.com/d1.html .
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