воскресенье, 25 марта 2018 г.

Fake Russian Bear's might


Self-Defense of the Russian Middle Classes
Русский пересказ с дополнениями здесь - https://www.facebook.com/vladimir.lukov.16/videos/1122237887919324/UzpfSTEwMDAwMzk5MzY5NDEzMDoxMTIyMjY0NDk0NTgzMzMw/. За 30 мин. набрал 100 просмотров! 
My viewpoint is that the Power Structure centered on the Kremlin is shifting from autocratic Putin’s regime into radicalizing regions of Russia[1]. Small businesses are under tax-and-raiders’ attacks from this ‘Vertical Power’, which appears to be a fake!
The pro-Kremlin Mass Media is torturing facts about it with falsified public opinion and the recent presidential election’s vote.
But on the other side, the Russian Middle Class creates a silent decentralizing Confederation. Only within it small businesses might self-defense and survive under an inevitable crash of Putinism. Waves of arrests of governors and other regional heads are higher and higher as an argument for the shift to such a decentralization of the Kremlin’s power. 
So, on remnants of Putin’s Neo-Stalinism there will be millions of Russian and Non-Russian proprietors. They should deal on good terms with democratic states of the World.  
Why is Putin barking on the Mars?
Putin’s barking on the Mars is a maneuver.[2] His political & economic bankruptcy is evident. He sidetracks the public opinion in Russia and World investors to keep his Tsardom untouched.
 All plans and three main wishes of Putin (since 2012) are unrealistic. Nevertheless, the Russian population and the West believe (!) in them by 2024. Putin’s partners in the West admit that the Russian Middle Classes and its foreign partners will be under the Kremlin’s yoke for other six years and even later!
As if having the miracle golden fish in his hands, Putin, according to Andrew Wood[3], has been trying:
1) To make NO significant structural economic reforms to avoid the political risks attached to them;
2) To control the Economy via ‘cartoon nuclear missiles blackmailing’ the World with rising taxes for small businesses to suppress them ‘for ever’ in the people interests, meaning a growing number of Russian young lumpens[4];
3) To pursue ‘great power’ ambitions of his completely ‘Failed State’ with numerous ‘ Grey Zones’ beyond the Kremlin’s control.
This evident Neo-Stalinism has discouraged the wise part of the population in its desire to build Free Market Economy. Putin leads to ‘Neo-Stagnation’ of the Brezhnev’s style with huge petrodollar resources.
Mismanaging ties between the regions and the Kremlin seems to go from bad to the worst. Regions won’t be funded for self-development while western sanctions are furiously biting ‘capitalism of Putin’s friends’.
More over the ‘Vertical Power’ of Putin’s vision is an evident fake. For 18 years there has been no coherency to make the Russian Federation real and even ecologically safe[5]! There is a stable Horizontal Power of ‘ponyatiya’ which means ‘to live by criminal or semi-criminal concepts’.
Real and latent conflicts between elite have already destroyed 80% of determined patterns of behavior and ‘laws’ in ‘independent’ courts of so-called ‘the Russian Federation’.
The FSB, the successor to the KGB, has become ‘an apple of the eye’ of Putinism. Without Putin his appointees in a ‘post-Putinist era’, if any, are to work for benefits of the super-riches.
The latter must rely on private armies to survive and protect themselves from petty businesses that are under the Putin’s yoke.
Since the collapse of the USSR, the Armed Forces of Russia and other NIS have been under constant pressure of further ‘Balkanization’. The Russian and Non-Russian Militaries have been mixing up with the ‘Shadow Economy’ since the so-called Defense Conversion of the 1990s. Oligarchs picked up the former Military for their self-defense.
By the 2010s, these Militaries have come out of the ‘shadow’ into official political and military affairs. For example, since 2014, the Russian Military has destabilized and tried to dismember Ukraine through armed proxies, 'volunteer' forces, and unacknowledged aggression[6].
Without really ‘touching the West’s tits’, Putin keeps the NATO (as a lady) in nervous suspension with his Grey Zones[7]. In response the NATO often thinks it is ‘less than the war’. Though Teresa May has strongly disagreed with such a Putin’s petting.
The fear of the West to get pregnant from Putin’s Autocracy (through 4-5 millions of Russians as possible Putinists?) looks like a betrayal of the Russian Third Class with its strive to new honest leaders in businesses, equipped with artificial intellect and IT.
Putin’s ‘Vertical Power’ has inflicted heavy losses to the Private Sector and made highly ineffective State-run Sector of Economy, Education, Social Security and Public Security.
That has happened because of ‘Siloviki’ (Secret Services’ people) were appointed from above with immunity for their crimes and violence.
By now, Putin’s Secret Services on governing positions have failed to run the post-Soviet ‘Brave Russian World’! Incompetence and corruption are inherent in the whole Putinist ‘Law and Order’.
The very ‘Siloviki’ are willy-nilly subversive for the regime, not banned NGOs and Private Sector people as ‘foreign agents’.
 Now, opposition is expecting new putinist repression and blackmail to continue up to 2024.
But there is the light in the end of the tunnel – it is a widening boycott of the World Football Cup in June-July, 2018.
More that 20 members of the EU and the USA & Canada could join the Great Britain’s response to ‘the Salisbury poisoning’ and become the Last Straw to break the Putinist ‘Camel Back” in the World sport, at least.
If it does not happen, there are many other crises for the Kremlin’s ‘Law & Order’. All illusion of a post-Putin era seems to disappear after the notorious 76,7% vote for Putin on 18 March.
It is not Putin’s personal triumph. There exit numerous regional organized criminal groups to convince and/or bribe the population in the Kremlin’s fake-success and fake-plans.
Western sanctions will certainly expose these crazy plans of Putinist ‘modernization’ as completely untrue[8]. 
That is why ONLY regional successors to Putin’s ‘three wishes’ are to protect or reject all of them. The rejection is far more realistic, because of:
1)                    The Kremlin’s ‘right’ to be a great power, dominant over its neighbors has been ruined in Syria and Ukraine;
2)                    No trust is expected from/for the Kremlin after the Salisbury events (poisoning the UK citizens);
3)                    Closer attention of the World to the Kremlin’s Human Rights violations before/after the WFC-2018 with new sanctions;
4)                    The exercise of justice for political prisoners in Russia is a must for any talks between putinists and NATO countries;
5)                    Corruption is the second name of Putinism and incompatible with longer-term success;
6)                    Russia will be vulnerable to global economic crises with focus on hybrid wars as ‘factories’ of higher prices of her natural resources for exports.
Approximately 70-80% of the Russian ‘White Economy’ remains in State or quasi-State hands, and is under poorly handled entrepreneurial management.
The Shadow Economy might survive between now and 2024. But the White Economy with its fake ‘social responsibility’ will not, according to economists’ forecasts in/out of Russia.
         Self-Defense of small businesses against bandit capitalism of Putinists is a new challenge for Russia after Putin. And his successors (with New Lunpens, as managers to rule) will not use flows of petrodollars in Russia. They surely do not want to feed the Middle Classes, as the Putinism's 'grave-digger'.
         About the very Self-Defense of the Middle Class, see my next publication. Until then, relax and get fun looking at the fake might of the Putin’s ‘Russian Bear’.

         This ‘might’ and estimation of private armies in Russia were not reported to President Trump. No wonder, he is giving an ax to a lot of ‘Russian experts’ for their ‘Russia-Gate’ that is simply a meager cover of ex-CIA heads’ snobbism and pro-Putinism. 
      Putin the Terrible is an old good 'swamp' of budget and private  money that President Trump is eager to drain for Middle Classes of America and, possibly, Russia! Why not?
         Vladimir Lukov



[1] The Kremlin has been forced to turn to regional leaders to produce a decent turnout and muster the required votes on March 18, 201, but that comes at a cost of shifting the balance of power towards the regions - http://www.intellinews.com/russia-outlook-2018-134716/ .
[4] There are two dress-styles of Russian new lumpens as Putin’s supporters - https://coub.com/view/bvxpi and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZLVXgHxqVI (in fact, it’s a kitsch of super-rich families’ guys). But they are to become managers of Russia after Putin, if they are lucky!

[5] In Volokolamsk, the city head got over his head from citizens for letting out an ecological disaster - https://www.facebook.com/kaynur.ivanuch/videos/209591233122653/ .
[8] There are predictions that the crude oil price could be anywhere from $51/b to $76/b by May 2018. Then by 2025, the average price of a barrel of Brent crude oil will rise to $85.70/b. And by 2040, prices will be $106.08/b (again in 2017 dollars) - https://www.thebalance.com/oil-price-forecast-3306219. Putinists will not use flows of petrodollars in Russia not to feed the Middle Classes as the Kremlin's 'grave-digger'.

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