Fake Iron Fist

September ‘Straw’ may break two Camels’ Backs

The end of September ‘military maneuvers’ of the Kremlin in Belarus, if any, will create a power vacuum here and there.

The huge amount of armed people outside of Moscow and Minsk may rise up waves of protests against the transition from Lukashenko’s dictatorship to Putin’s authoritarian regime with ‘the Iron Fist’.

Post-Soviet rule under Lukashenko has become a miserable experience for the population of Belarus. Citizens want changes.

That is why transition from Lukashenko’s soft tyranny to Putin’s United State will be surely rejected by the population with deep psychological roots of resistance to any occupational forces.

Putin’s ‘Iron Fist’ can’t suppress desire of the population to ruin pro-Soviet isolation from the West. There are several reasons to believe in it.

Fake-steps into Military Affairs Revolution

The Military of the both countries are politically castrated with economic and financial hardships, which are more impressive than in the USSR when it was a ‘Super-Leader’ on the World Community.

Sense of pride for ‘the Iron Fist’ among the ruling elite and controlled Militaries is high, but military skills to show any ‘superiority’ are too low.

In addition, the post-Soviet system created elite and well-connected business groups of ‘all-Slavic’ leaders. They easily stepped into power positions right after pro-Western reformers were expelled from the Kremlin or Minsk, like Stanislav Shushkevich, for example.

By now, the both Militaries have been religiously indoctrinated with the Russian Orthodox Church under its Moscow Headquarter.  

Latent conflicts between pro-Western and anti-Western groups in the both countries and their Militaries still remain. They are being forced to coexist within the same, pro-Soviet artificial constitutional borders, named “The United State of Russia & Belarus”. It is a fake-State!

Two dictators of this “United State” cultivate illusions of cooperation to make it easier and cheaper than to build real intro-state infrastructures.

Putin and Lukashenko prefer ‘softly’ repressing politically concerned civilians and the rest of the populations with less expenses.

It seems to them easier to do with a fake-demonstration of ‘Joint Military Power’ vs. NATO than attempting to settle geopolitical, economic and religious differences, existing among these ‘Slavic Brothers’.

Holes in the United State and its Militaries

Pagan believes in Belarus (Rodnovery) and Russia (Perunists) serve as spiritual basis for anti-dictatorship ‘soft’ religious resistance ‘from below’.

The military activity of Putin in Belarus could become the last Biblical Straw that breaks the camels back of Lukashenko’s dictatorship and Putin’s Kleptocracy. Any failure of the West-2017 in Belarus will go together with a rise of citizenry activism there and inside Russia.

Putin’s maneuvers are to reveal holes in the United State and threats to its Militaries, as:

1) Lower military professionalism of two dictators in front of pretty high combat readiness of the NATO/USA;

2) Constant US military aiming at North Korea also serves as a strong warning to these two ‘rough regimes’;

3) On the other hand, the Kremlin is eager ‘to tie with blood’ new troops, as Putin did in Chechnya, while climbing up to power in the 2000 pseudo-elections. So anti-military feelings in the Internet and pacifist movements of the youth are around the corner in this dis-‘United State’.  

In short, the September maneuvers may demonstrate possibilities and facilities of adaptation of the both Militaries & Societies to new realities in a new Political Culture and Open Economy. Changes are to happen right after dismissal of Lukashenko and Putin.

How to figure out consequences?

The ‘September Straw’ may break Camel Backs of these draconian regimes.  Even, if it won’t, one may easily summarize troubles between the Militaries with civilians & elite inside Belarus and Russia.

Such calculation is possible with methods of ‘Math Counter-Terrorism’ (http://urss.ru/cgi-bin/db.pl?lang=Ru&blang=ru&page=Book&id=60504 - in Russian).

Such methods can explain even present fears of two dictators as C-in-Cs during other routine drills and military confrontations in other directions (see, in Russian) - https://russiancounterterror.blogspot.ru/2017/08/putinocchio-and-military.html.

The World does not trust to Putinocchio any more! Even Lukashenko looks trustworthy, when he mentions latent guerilla warfare, if Putin’s troops remain in Belarus after the 20^th of September.

All these and other dictators’ games are in the loop of Strategic Counter-Terrorists. They do separate ‘Terror from above’ from ‘Terrorism of Streets’. It’s the way to prevent Terror & Terrorism in Global Strategy ‘Good against Evil’!

Vladimir Lukov (PhD), please donate via PayPal or to Sberbank (MIR) – 2202 2003 8990 6437